MLS week 6

[rolltide]

14-0-6 +27.13 (staked 69.10, +39.3%)

looks like a really tough week with some tight lines. might a few more small ones in addition to this early tip...

Philadelphia vs Columbus
- two teams I really don't have a good grasp on...even said as much in my preview. One thing I do know is that neither are going to present a potent offense. I'm a little leery about this pick because 1) I hate playing u2 and 2) Philly can't possibly be this poor offensively, right? Philly scored an own goal in Portland and then scored against 10 man Colorado, but that is it! Even worse is their offensive production after 4 matches...just 11 SOG and 18 SOG against...11 SOG in 4 matches! Cbus have put 6 SOG/game but allowed just 5 SOG/game so we should be looking at a match with just a handful of chances as Cbus have just 4 goals themselves, 1 from penalty. Another big positive is that Cbus were hit for 4 home goals last week so defense will be their priority on Saturday as they'll be facing a Philly team looking to push the pace, desperate for a win. Philly simply not an offensive dynamo as they've netted more than 1 home goal just once in past 7 dating back to last year. Cbus play very tight normally away and both road games ended under this year with almost no chances offensively. Wrote a lot about both teams' lack of offense in the preview so won't get further into it but certainly didn't expect anything better than u2 1.90 in this one. A bit worried that this could be Philly's "coming out party" but they showed no ability to break down Vancouver and should face a really retreated Cbus. Normally would play Philly -1/4 but when a team gets embarrassed like Cbus last week they're sure to play inspired.

Philly/Cbus under 2 goals 3u +124 pinnacle

 

[rolltide]

had been waiting to hear that Mauro Rosales was back in lineup today which would have triggered a bet on Seattle but just got the word that Sigi will rest him again as they don't play a match next until 4/28

might have a late add....just waiting on lineups but will not take anything on seattle match though a strong lean to home win there. some thoughts for toronto pk, Dal -3/4, LA -3/4, and NE under but no bets yet

 

[gremlin]

What do you think of:
TOTAL o2½-110 (SJ EARTHQUAKES vrs NY RED BULLS)

 

[DialSquares]

i don't bet because they are due but TFC seem to be far better than their MLS record. Toronto does alright vs Chivas and can finally concentrate fully on the MLS. They should be pretty confident for today so i played it. pick line of course

Gl this round

 

[rolltide]

gremlin, yeah it looks ok but yallop is a hell of a coach and he won't let them get into a crazy up and down match like cbus and montreal did. i could see that ending 1-1 although sj and wondo should get a lot of chances without conde in the back.

ds, definitely want to play tfc as I think they have a better team than the record shows for sure. will certainly bite if I see Frings is starting...he says he's ready but the team doc is opposing this

 

[gremlin]

Thanks rolltide. It seems you have a lot of pretty sharp opinions on MLS-- Do you just watch a ton of games? I rarely see many televised, so I can really only watch the nationally televised games and my local market (NY Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union)

Please post if you elect to play any other games this evening, I'll be following. I like the over in Red Bulls, Seattle ML, and I'll probably play LA -1 in the late game (I see a 3-1 or 2-0 result in that one)

 

[rolltide]

yeah, i watch most of them and the others i check out highlights and reviews. the mls online package for $60 gets you the entire season and has pip functionality to watch multiple matches. you can also find at least half the games shown for free through sportlemon.tv or streamhunter or rojadirecta, weekly game on galavision, weekly game on nbcsports, and weekly espn match. MLS online really sucked last 2 years but this year it's very clear and high bit rates. Also been doing mls capping for the better part of 10 years so i'm very familiar with the players and coaches

pretty much like the same games you do but only the one bet so far. not touching seattle or ne games at 4pm but i do like seattle and over there and would have bet it strongly with rosales. they're moving estrada to the wing and debuting eddie j up front....mistake IMO to take estrada from attack as the kid is in crazy form. still waiting on TFC lineups but i confirmed that frings is out

 

[rolltide]

lineups are in and frings made the bench at least

TFC XI: Kocic; Eckersley, Cann, Aceval, Morgan; Lambe, Dunfield, Silva; Johnson, Koevermans, Plata

Bench: Roberts; Henry, Harden, Stinson, de Guzman, Frings, Avila

Chivas XI: Kennedy; Jazic, McKenzie, Riley; Zemanski, LaBrocca, Minda; Smith, Moreno, Bolanos

Chivas Bench: Melia; Valencia, Gordon; Cardozo, Courtois; Romero and Townsend


well I'll probably regret this but I've to oppose CUSA in b2b away games and with brutal cross country travel and still without JP Angel and Vagenas. Really not much separates these teams from quality perspective and TFC is going to be the hungrier side. CUSA were great in 2H last week but should have been down 2 or 3 at HT except Portland couldn't finish chances. TFC has trouble creating but all 3 forwards can finish when given the opportunity. Would have loved a Frings start but he's gotta play if he's listed on the bench and that is a big boost to Toronto. Just a small bet as I don't trust Toronto, they're just too mistake prone. Not going to be a pretty match but hope for 1-0 here

Toronto pk 1.5u -120 pinnacle

 

[rolltide]

for you live bet guys give NE/DC u3.25 a shot at -115. 1-0 Revs right now...

 

[rolltide]

Philly 1-0 +3.72
Toronto 0-1 -1.80

won half stake on live bet which was nice and completely lucky

back in an hour or two after FCD and LA lineups are in

 

[gremlin]

What do you think of:
TOTAL o2½-110 (SJ EARTHQUAKES vrs NY RED BULLS)

2-2 by 35' !! Glad I played this one.

 

[rolltide]

LA Galaxy vs Portland
- i still think LA are the team to beat in the league but this defense is a real issue and today will miss DLG and very possibly will start a brand new centerback they just acquired from CUSA this week. Still with a full week of training after playing a real decent match in KC I think they are ready to roll someone and no better than an ailing Timbers group. Basically Portland's starting 4 defenders (projected in preseason) are all out today which is not good when facing Keane, LD, Becks, Juninho, Magee, and Buddle. What LA lack in defense they can certainly make up in ball possession and scoring chances so I see them netting at least 2 or 3 tonight. Portland lost by 2 or more goals 6 times away from home last year but scored in a majority of the games. LA have scored in 20 straight at home and have conceded a terrible 9 goals in L4 at home. I think they will do a better job defending tonight but not sure they can get a clean sheet with their makeshift central defense. I think we'll see a back and forth match with a ton of chances and goals.

all the guns are ready for LA...XI: Saunders; Franklin, Lopez, Meyer, Dunivant; Donovan, Juninho, Beckham, Magee; Keane, Barrett

Barrett replacing Buddle who has been out of form and in Arena's doghouse. I think LA are ready to start their inevitable table climb.

LA Galaxy -1 2u +125 betcris
LA/Port over 2.5 1.25u -112 pinnacle

 

[rolltide]

LA 3-1 +3.75 (juninho, donovan, and a great goal by beckham...class prevailed in 2H)

week 6: 4-0-1 +5.67

18-0-7 +32.80 (staked 77.30, +42.4%)
week 1 4-0 +15.70
week 2 5-1 +6.00
week 3 3-2 +6.55
week 4 0-3 -9.62
week 5 2-0 +8.50
week 6 4-1 +5.67

 

[rolltide]

one too many... 3-0-1 for week

17-0-7 +32.80 (staked 77.30, +42.4%)
week 1 4-0 +15.70
week 2 5-1 +6.00
week 3 3-2 +6.55
week 4 0-3 -9.62
week 5 2-0 +8.50
week 6 3-1 +5.67

no play on today's game although i lean on home win for chicago. houston are the better team but a 3 week layoff is just like starting the season all over again and against a team with incredible speed they could get down early. this is the first of 4 more road games for houston until their new stadium is ready next month. i think low scoring home win but no bet

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

Nice work on the LA total....was spent from the day at Yankee game....decided to play a few horses n let those winnings ride blindly on my first ever MLS wager....gracias....won't lie....I knew about a handful of players....had no idea Robbie Keane still had legs

 

[Huego]

nice job again my man!

 

[gremlin]

roll tide, I'm gonna be rollin' with you on MLS the rest of the season. You definitely know your American soccer.

 

[SunDodger]

Nice work again, rolltide.

That was a great goal by Beckham. Couldn't believe it when the announcer said it was only his 12th goal in six years of MLS.

Portland has been giving up a lot of late goals, and now they host Sporting KC. Not looking good for them.


If possible, could you please post your up to date 1 thru 19 rankings for MLS. Your previews have helped me when I make an occasional pick on my own.

 

[rolltide]

If possible, could you please post your up to date 1 thru 19 rankings for MLS. Your previews have helped me when I make an occasional pick on my own.

Sporting KC
RSL
LA Galaxy
Seattle
Houston
San Jose
Dallas
RBNY
Colorado
Chicago
DC United
Philly
Vancouver
Portland
Chivas USA
Columbus
Toronto
New England
Montreal

 

[gremlin]

rolltide, any thought on the midweek games?